Student nurse numbers are declining to the extent that the official NHS workforce plan for England will be over 10,000 off target by 2025, new analysis by the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) shows as it calls for renewed investment and action.
The nursing union is also warning that student recruitment could fall into an ‘irretrievable downward spiral’ as increasing numbers of university nursing courses are at risk of closure.
Ministers must prioritise introducing a plan to increase student nurse applications for the 2025 intake, with the first UCAS deadlines just six months after the general election.
It comes on the second day of the RCN’s annual conference where over 3,000 nursing staff are discussing the nursing workforce crisis.
The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan published in June last year aims to grow the nursing workforce from around 350,000 nurses to around 550,000 in 2036/37.
However, in the last four years, the number of people starting nursing courses has declined at an average rate of 6.7%. If this trend continues, the next two years would see the NHS in England 10,952 nursing students short of the numbers needed to meet the plan’s ambition in its first years.
To get back on track, applications must now increase on average by 4,466 (11%) with the number of acceptances needing to rise on average by 2,330 (10.4%) every year.
The RCN says such rapid increases will be impossible to deliver without a serious and significant government intervention.
In 2017, the government removed the bursary - a grant to support nursing students through university - and ended government-funded tuition. It means nursing students must now pay university fees of over £9,000 per year, which has caused applicant numbers to drop significantly.
Courses are also under threat from the financial crisis gripping universities. In a survey of over 500 nurse educators in England, six in ten (61%) say they’re being directly affected by redundancy, a staffing restructure or recruitment freeze.
The RCN says the surge in growth required to deliver the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan will be impossible to achieve with fewer courses and educators.
In its general election demands, the College says the next government must take urgent action to turn the situation around by fully funding tuition for nursing students and introducing universal living maintenance grants.
Patricia Marquis, Executive Director for RCN England, said:
“Making the next generation of nurses pay £9,000 a year to work in our NHS was a grave mistake. Applications have collapsed and now the NHS is falling behind its own recruitment targets just one year into the Long Term Workforce Plan. The ground is being laid for workforce shortages to deepen, impacting patient care.
“The financial crisis engulfing universities means the courses that supply the nurses of the future are under severe risk and staff are being made redundant. This threatens to send student recruitment into an irretrievable downward spiral. Fewer courses and fewer teachers means fewer nurses – it's that simple.
“The trends are deeply concerning and require swift and decisive action. The next government must fund tuition fees for nursing students, reintroduce universal maintenance support and stabilise the higher education sector.”
ENDS
Notes to editors:
The RCN has modelled the levels of applications and acceptances to undergraduate nursing degree courses needed in order to produce the level of workforce growth set out in the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan.
Each year from 2024 to 2031, the number of applicants needs to grow by an average of 4,466 (11%), and the number of acceptances by 2,330 (10.4%) each year.
From 2020-2023, the number of acceptances declined by an average of 6.7% each year. If these trends were to continue, the acceptances in 2024 would be 18,809, and in 2025 they would be 17,549.
Compared to RCN projections about the number of acceptances needed each year to stay on track with the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan (2024: 22,490, 2025: 24,820), the shortfall is 10,952.
In May 2024, the RCN surveyed 673 nurse educators, including 545 from England.
